For the NASCAR Whelen Modified Tour, it all comes down to one more Saturday night showdown, this time at the historic Martinsville Speedway. Justin Bonsignore has retaken the points lead as he looks for his fourth championship, while Ron Silk looks to stage an epic one-race comeback to claim his second championship in a row and third overall. And don’t count out Patrick Emerling either as he’s still mathematically alive and looking for his first championship.

How Justin Bonsignore Can Win The Championship

For Bonsignore, the road to his fourth championship is relatively simple. All he has to do is finish fourth or better and the 2024 championship is his. And we say that’s “simple” because Bonsignore has finished third or better in three of his four starts at the Virginia “paperclip.” Bonsignore has finishes of second, third, and second in 2010, 2021, and 2023. His only finish off the podium came in 2022 when his Ken Massa Motorsports No. 51 broke a rear-end and he finished 29th. 

Bonsignore has retaken the points lead on the heels of back-to-back victories at Thompson Speedway and North Wilkesboro Speedway. He now leads Silk by 10 points and Emerling by 24 points as he looks to become just the fourth driver in NASCAR Whelen Modified Tour history to win four or more championships. He would join Mike Stefanik, Reggie Ruggiero, and Doug Coby should he claim the title on Saturday night.

If Bonsignore fails to score any bonus points throughout the day Saturday, he can still win the championship by finishing within nine positions of Silk if neither driver wins the race. If Silk wins the race and has a maximum points day by winning the pole and leading the most laps, Bonsignore would need to finish fifth to win the championship.

How Ron Silk Can Win The Championship

Silk can claim his second championship in a row if he wins the race without a max points day if Bonsignore finishes seventh or worse. 

A maximum points day in NASCAR Whelen Modified Tour competition consists of winning the pole (one bonus point), leading a lap (one bonus point), leading the most laps (one bonus point), and winning the race (three bonus points). Winning the race counts as 43 points, plus one bonus point for leading a lap, and three bonus points, totaling up to 47 points. A maximum points day would total out to 49 points.

In the event that neither driver scores a single bonus point, Silk needs to finish 11 positions better than Bonsignore to win the championship by one point. If Silk finishes 10 positions better than Bonsignore, they would tie. 

Should there be a tie, well, that’s where things get complicated.

NASCAR’s tiebreaker system goes to who scored the most wins as the first tiebreaker. Bonsignore and Silk currently both have four victories. So, in this scenario, that tiebreaker doesn’t work, so now we go to which driver has the most second-place finishes. Guess what? They’re both tied with two second-place finishes each entering Martinsville. If that tiebreaker doesn’t work, the next tiebreaker is most third-place finishes. Bonsignore currently holds the edge there, but should Silk finish third, then they’d each have the same number again. We’d then have to go to most fourth-place finishes, where they’re tied once again with one each. If that doesn’t work, we’d go to most fifth-place finishes, where, once again, Bonsignore currently holds the edge entering Martinsville. But if Silk finishes fifth and Bonsignore finishes 15th, they’d then tie again in fifth-place finishes. 

Let’s just hope we don’t have that level of mathematical chaos on Saturday night.

How Patrick Emerling Can Win The Championship

Now that that confusion is out of the way, let’s take a look at Emerling’s chances, which are much simpler to explain, but much more difficult to obtain.

Emerling made a miracle run at the championship by winning three of the last five races to get to Martinsville with an outside chance at it. He’s still alive, but he’ll need a lot of help.

The Orchard Park, New York driver basically needs to win the race and have a something catastrophic happen to Bonsignore, as well as a uncharacteristic fun outside the top 10 for Silk. 

Emerling can win the championship with a race win if Bonsignore finishes 22nd or worse AND Silk finishes 12th or worse. If Emerling scores a max points day, Bonsignore needs to finish 20th or worse and Silk 10th or worse to win the championship.

So how will it all unfold? Well, we’ll have to wait and see together on Saturday night when the Virginia is for Racing Lovers 200 goes green at 8 p.m. ET live on FloRacing.

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NASCAR Whelen Modified Tour at Martinsville Speedway Entry List