A statistical breakdown of the four drivers eligible Big River Steel Chase for the Championship presented by ARP on the Lucas Oil Late Model Dirt Series heading into the seven-race playoffs. Senior writer Kevin Kovac adds a prediction for each driver. The champion receives $200,000 with $150,000, $125,000 and $100,000 for the rest of the top four. 

Let's take a look at "The Big Four" and break down the 2024 Chase for the Championship:

Jonathan Davenport, Blairsville, Ga.

Age: 40

Series starts: 43

Series victories: Eight (three semifeatures)

Average finish: 5.82

Top-five finishes: 28

Top-10 finishes: 37

Series earnings: $317,250

Series points: 5,610 (third before playoffs)

Best Brownstown finish: 1st (2015)

Best Pittsburgh finish: 2nd (2015)

Best Eldora finish: 9th (2023)

Super Late Model series titles: Lucas Oil (2015, '18-19); Castrol (2021); XR (2022); Southern Nationals (2010, ’13)

Why he’ll win the title: Experience and stability are on his side as he’s not only a three-time Lucas Oil Series champion but also in his seventh season racing with Double L Motorsports — more years with the same team than the other three Big Four competitors combined. Plus, he’s the hottest driver of the quartet entering the playoff (six wins in his last 15 starts since mid-August) and the finale is at Eldora, the track he knows better than any other.

Why he won’t win the title: Moran’s amazing consistency proves to be too much for Davenport to beat.

Kevin Kovac’s prediction: Davenport enters the DTWC second in the standings to Moran, but the gap is small and J.D.’s prowess at Eldora carries him to a victory in a crown jewel missing from his resume that allows him to overtake Moran for his fourth Lucas Oil Series crown.

VIDEO: Watch Dirty Dollars: Jonathan Davenport now on FloRacing. 

Tim McCreadie, Watertown, N.Y.

Age: 50

Series starts: 42

Series victories: Two

Average finish: 8.79

Top-five finishes: 13

Top-10 finishes: 29

Series earnings: $211,125

Series points: 5,095 (fourth before playoffs)

Best Brownstown finish: 1st three times (2008, '20, ’22)

Best Pittsburgh finish: 3rd three times (2019, '21, ’23)

Best Eldora finish: 4th (2023)

Super Late Model series titles: Lucas Oil (2021-22); World of Outlaws (2006)

Why he’ll win the title: Playing as he said with “house money” after becoming the last driver to lock into the Big Four with a fifth-place finish in the Knoxville Nationals, McCreadie and the Rocket1 team hit their stride at just the right time and ride a seven-race hot streak to the house car operation’s second straight championship and the third of McCreadie’s career.

Why he won’t win the title: Still meshing with the Rocket1 team he joined in mid-March, he’s not quite strong enough to outrun the more established combinations of Davenport and Moran.

Kevin Kovac’s prediction: McCreadie wins at least once over the final seven races and his veteran’s consistency keeps him in contention through the DTWC and ahead of Thornton, but he plays third fiddle to Davenport and Moran at Eldora.

VIDEO: Tim McCreadie picked up the Topless 100 victory at Batesville in August. 

Devin Moran, Dresden, Ohio

Age: 30

Series starts: 43

Series victories: Six (one semifeature)

Average finish: 5.57

Top-five finishes: 30

Top-10 finishes: 37

Series earnings: $323,555

Series points: 5,615 (second before playoffs)

Best Brownstown finish: 1st (2024)

Best Pittsburgh finish: 2nd (2023)

Best Eldora finish: 3rd (2023)

Super Late Model series titles: None

Why he’ll win the title: Seemingly always near the front of the pack (12 victories and 17 runner-up finishes overall this season), a seven-race showdown fits him perfectly and the five tracks on the schedule — including two in his home state — are all very much in his wheelhouse.

Why he won’t win the title: He’s unable to build enough of a points cushion on Davenport before the DTWC.

Kevin Kovac’s prediction: Moran accumulates the most points over the first six races, but Davenport’s Eldora mastery erases the deficit and leaves just short of the title for the second straight year.

VIDEO: Devin Moran joined Derek Kessinger for One Lap, One Beer at Eldora.

Ricky Thornton Jr., Chandler, Ariz.

Age: 33

Series starts: 41

Series victories: 13 (two semifeatures)

Average finish: 5.15

Top-five finishes: 30

Top-10 finishes: 36

Series earnings: $383,569

Series points: 5,770 (first before playoffs)

Best Brownstown finish: 1st (2023)

Best Pittsburgh finish: 1st twice (2020, ’23)

Best Eldora finish: 8th (2023)

Super Late Model series titles: None

Why he’ll win the title: After his dominant 2023 season ended short of a championship because of a heartbreaking early incident in the winner-take-all DTWC at Eldora, karma carries him to the title he thought should have been his a year ago.

Why he won’t win the title: Still hasn’t hit his otherworldly performance level of 2023 and the first half of ’24 since moving to Koehler Motorsports in July and enters the playoff without a top-five finish in his last six Dirt Late Model starts overall.

Kevin Kovac’s prediction: While the scramble to piece together a formidable team with Koehler Motorsports after his release from SSI Motorsports at midseason was impressive, he can’t overcome the most established programs of his three Big Four rivals over the seven-race title run.

VIDEO: Ricky Thornton Jr. parted ways with SSI Motorsports in July.