2021 Dirt Late Model Dream at Eldora Speedway

Fast Talk: Eldora Dirt Late Model Dream Notes & Predictions

Fast Talk: Eldora Dirt Late Model Dream Notes & Predictions

Reviewing a busy weekend and looking ahead the unprecedented Double Dreams week at Eldora Speedway, our roundtable convenes in the weekly feature!

Jun 7, 2021 by FloRacing Staff
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Reviewing a busy weekend and looking ahead the unprecedented Double Dreams week at Eldora Speedway, our roundtable convenes in the weekly feature presented by Castrol Motor Oil and Fluids (edited for clarity and length):

What's your takeaway(s) from weekend results?

Kevin Kovac, DirtonDirt.com senior writer: For starters, Jonathan Davenport is absolutely primed for the double Dreams that are just days away. Even a sickness that dragged him down Saturday couldn’t stop him from completing a $35,000 sweep of the Historic 100 weekend at the high-speed West Virginia Motor Speedway (which, by the way, drew massive crowds, if not large fields of Dirt Late Models). J.D. is now already more than $200,000 in first-place earnings this season, so if he were to continue his roll with a spectacular performance this week at Eldora — and he’s one of the select few who could win both Dreams — he would find himself with nearly a half-million dollars in winner’s purses on his ledger just a couple weeks into June!

Todd Turner, DirtonDirt.com managing editor: The entertainment value of the WoO events in Indiana ranked high for me. Sure, Circle City's debut was a little rough (literally), but the Dennis Erb Jr.-Ryan Gustin battle was dramatic. And Rick Eckert's Plymouth victory (good to see a fellow 55-year-old still getting it done!) also provided lots of exciting moments with his pursuers right on his tail. Final takeaway: Gustin is due for a victory.

Robert Holman, DirtonDirt.com weekend editor: It was neat to see the veterans get wins on the World of Outlaws tours, with Dennis Erb Jr. winning in the series first-ever visit to Circle City in Indianapolis and Rick Eckert winning the next day at Plymouth. I think Circle City really played to Erb’s strengths. We know he’s made his living by rolling around the hub, but somehow he also managed to get through the rough stuff just a bit better than everyone else. And seeing Eckert get a victory is validation that he still has what it takes to compete at the sport’s highest level, despite cutting back to a regional schedule a few years ago.

Joshua Joiner, DirtonDirt.com staff writer: How in the world did Tony Jackson Jr. not have a five-figure victory before his $10,000 payday in Friday’s Lucas Oil MLRA race at Mississippi Thunder Speedway? For as much racing and winning as he’s done over the past six or seven years, I would’ve assumed he already had one if not more. For as long as it took him to get one, however, His five-figure payday on Friday was hardly ever in doubt. He was dominant at Mississippi Thunder, and along with his $5,000 MLRA victory at Maquoketa Speedway on Thursday, that’s a big weekend for him.

Dustin Jarrett, DirtonDirt.com staffer: Jonathan Davenport continues to have just a monster season after sweeping this weekend's Historic 100 at West Virginia Motor Speedway. His 14 victories in 42 races means he's won exactly 33 percent of the shows he's entered. In those 42 starts, he's amassed an astounding 25 podium finishes. J.D. now has four victories over $20,000 and has cleared $200,000 in first-place prize money (although he did leave $5,000 on the table Saturday at WVMS by not running a throwback scheme).

What's the argument against a single driver sweeping both Dream 100-lappers?

Turner: As with any kind of success at Eldora, things really, really need to fall a driver's way to end up in victory lane even once, much less twice. And over four days when $126,000 and $127,000 in winner's purses are on the line? It will take a nearly cosmic turn of events. An invert. A flat tire. A restart penalty. Dare I say trouble at the scales? All can undo a driver's hopes. That said, if Thursday's 27th Dream winner is in contention in Saturday's 26th Dream (yes, the races will be run out of order), that will definitely ramp up the excitement.

Jarrett: I agree with Todd that just too many things can happen. We all know winning at Eldora takes a ton of talent, but if we're being completely honest here, there's always a little bit of luck involved as well. And with only one prelim night for each Dream, one bit of bad luck at any point during the four-day stretch could wreak havoc on any one of the favorite's chances to win. Aside from that, keeping your equipment fresh, staying on top of the tire rule, and racing the track itself are all big factors in determining the outcome of both Dreams, which means it's going to be extremely difficult for one driver to win both.

Joiner: It’s not an iron-clad argument, but I would say that the field is just too good for one driver to win both races. Certainly it could happen, and certainly Jonathan Davenport is an excellent candidate to do it, but I think there’s too many other good cars for Davenport to be better than the entire field in not one but two 100-lappers. Plus, only having one prelim night per Dream allows less time for the cream to rise to the top and could shake things up a bit.

Holman: It’s definitely not out of the realm of possibility I suppose, but it’s so unlikely. There are so many variables that go into winning the race once, so to think someone could sweep the two 100-lappers is a stretch in my opinion. Until Scott Bloomquist did it in 2017-18, no driver had ever managed to win back-to-back Dreams. That’s how tough it is. One thing in a driver’s favor is that it’s all in a four-day stretch. So if you’re good on Thursday, you should at least be pretty decent Saturday. But while you may not have to wait a whole year to get another crack at it, you still have to navigate all the preliminary events first. And we know, anything can happen during the prelims.

Kovac: A sweep would certainly big a huge story, but there’s no doubt that two winners would be a long way toward spreading the wealth. The optimum outcome for the health of the division would be to have two teams leave Eldora with six-figure paychecks. That would propel a couple racers and their operations into the heat of the summer schedule with their bottom lines looking pretty decent.

What's something about the Dreams you're not hearing enough about?

Holman: That there’s two 100-lap features this coming weekend? That all the action will be streamed live on FloRacing? Or perhaps that one driver could leave Eldora with $273,000 in winnings if he sweeps the four features he starts? Actually I think we’ve just about covered it all. But I’ll throw this out there because I don’t think anyone has mentioned it. No Ohio native has won the Dream since Waterville’s Matt Miller in 2005. That’s 15 years of futility for the home-state drivers. Donnie Moran in ’96 is the only other Buckeye to ever win it. So if Devin Moran, Donnie's son, could break through this weekend, it would be big for the locals.

Jarrett: The fact that each Dream has just one prelim night means there's a pretty good chance we'll see some fresh faces in the 100-lap main events. Drivers no longer get two preliminary nights to figure things out and further separate the best from the rest. I fully expect to see some guys make the race that have never made it before, and I even expect to see a surprise heat winner or two. Having just one prelim night really helps the regional drivers, and that's certainly not a bad thing.

Joiner: How important crew members are going to be throughout the week. At a time when the sport is in a bit of a crew member shortage, even top-level teams will probably be feeling the strain of undermanned crews, not to mention regional and mid-level teams that rely on volunteers who might not be able to take an extra day off from work to make the trip. The effects of a strained crew are often subtle, but could have major impacts. The biggest one to me is it often gives crew chiefs and drivers less time to pay attention to the track and watch for changes that they need to adjust to. That could come into play, especially by the end of a long week.

Kovac: That Brandon Sheppard returns as the most recent Dream winner. I admit that I had to think a minute about who won the last Dream two years ago — considering all that’s happened since then, June 2019 seems a distant memory — and there’s no doubt that Sheppard also isn’t drawing his normal pre-Eldora attention with his surprising lack of World of Outlaws feature wins this season (just one points race to date). I have a feeling that B-Shepp’s quiet campaign with the Rocket Chassis house car team on the checkered-flag front might end up being a good thing for their Eldora prospects this week. It’s not like Sheppy and the blue No. 1 are flying completely under the radar, but with slightly lower expectations and less pressure they could “sneak” in and snatch another win.

Turner: Not sure this fits, but of all the favorites and names of potential winners' bandied about, I think I'm waiting to come up with — or discover — someone who will turning a surprisingly good performance at Eldora. For sure, we're beyond the days when it was nearly guaranteed a driver named Bloomquist, Moyer or Moran would win, but a true surprise? I'm hoping we see one, at least of an exciting heat winner or someone running up front in a prelim. Josh Rice might be the man, but he'd be less of a surprise and more of a fresh face.

Weigh in on Eldora's decision to limit tires or transfer scramble winners into the 100-lap features (or both).

Joiner: I’m a big fan of the scrambles becoming last-chance races. I’ve always liked the scrambles since they added them to the program a few years ago. Making them even more meaningful as last-chance races should make them even more interesting without adding any extra time to the program. The limit on tires makes sense given the situation. However, I hope it doesn’t force lower-budget teams that sometimes use a patchwork of used tires to spend more money on tires. An unintended consequence of the five-tire limit to prelim nights could be that a team that would use two used tires instead of one new tire has to buy a new one because neither of those used tires will be competitive for the entire night on it’s own and using them both would put them over the limit.

Jarrett: The scrambles have never really been my cup of tea. The intent behind them has always been well-directed, with extra money and DIRTcar points on the line however, in speaking with several folks, the novelty seemed to wear off pretty quick with fans and drivers alike. While this year's scrambles have a nice a little shakeup with the added drama of the winner making it to the feature, I'd be content with not even running the extra five laps and continuing to put one more car in the 100-lappers through the B-mains.

Turner: The tire limitation make sense based one a couple of key things. Certain circumference tires, perhaps used only in rare instances (time trials?), could've given some teams an edge. It should be an equalizer. Likewise it's clear the concern for Hoosier is beyond the Dream when they'll be needing tires for the DIRTcar Summer Nationals and other upcoming events, so burning through too many at Eldora could cause further issues down the road until tire inventories level out. Regarding the scrambles, Roger Slack has finally found a way to make these races meaningful (there was nothing sadder than interviewing a non-qualifying scramble winner on the Eldora stage), but it's still a gimmick that cheapens Eldora's brand.

Holman: First of all, the scramble has been a consolation race in the truest sense it the definition — it was a consolation for not making it into the main event. I personally didn’t hate them, but I didn’t like bringing the winner up on stage. That was a bit too much. You win a scramble, you should get your photo taken with the checkered flag while you’re still sitting in your car. With the winner now getting into the feature, it suddenly becomes a real last-chance race, which I also don’t hate. Just don’t get out of your car when you win it. Head on back to the pits and get ready for the feature so you’re not holding up the program.

Kovac: The tire rule is a smart response to the current supply situation. Why jeopardize how many tires might be available for, say, the upcoming DIRTcar Summer Nationals by allowing Dream competitors to buy extra rubber in a search for a certain size that might be a benefit only in time trials? As for the scramble winners receiving berths in the Dream features, that change will make those short sprints after the B-mains more than just afterthoughts for the first time. With starting spots on the line, the competition for the scramble wins takes on new importance.

Sell us on one driver you guarantee will be in victory lane at Eldora (prelims or main events).

Kovac: I’ve already picked Brandon Overton to win one of the Dream 100-lappers, but I expect him to win a preliminary feature as well. He abandoned his plans to enter West Virginia’s Historic 100 weekend to focus on preparation for Eldora, and I think that decision will pay off with the Georgian standing on the winner’s stage this week. He never lacks for confidence, and I think his desire to win a big one at Eldora will put him over the top.

Joiner: If I had to bet anything of significance on one driver for sure winning a race at Eldora this week, there’s no way I’m taking anyone other than Jonathan Davenport. There’s no one hotter than him right now and we all know he’s good at The Big E.

Jarrett: Jonathan Davenport is the obvious pick here (and I'm not surprised Joshua mentioned him), but what about Kyle Larson? I mean, he only wins in everything he races and he's got the smartest crew chief in the pits with Kevin Rumley. Both Larson and Rumley are former Eldora winners in their respective areas of expertise. Kyle has been just outstanding in his limited starts behind the wheeling Rumley's Longhorn and, honestly, I think it'll be more of a surprise if he doesn't win at least one race over the four-day stretch.

Turner: I'll go with history and say Darrell Lanigan will win — a prelim, I'd bet. He's got first- and second-place finishes at Eldora this year — and a few million laps at the place before that — and he's the winningest major-race prelim winner from 2017-19, so I'm confident he'll be there again.

Holman: Because Todd took my answer, I’ll go to Hudson O’Neal. I’m not sure how Todd could steal Darrell Lanigan from me the way I talked him up on our Dream VideoCast preview, but since he did, I’ll point to a driver who could be on the verge of the biggest weekend of his younger career, just two weeks — or maybe less — after winning the Show-Me 100. O’Neal won a World 100 preliminary feature in 2019, he’s win heats at the Big E and he won the May 15 Lidlifter, so we know he can get it done in the short distances at Eldora. Mark him down as a $10,000 winner — at least — this weekend, too.