CAA Football Week 12 Previews & Predictions: UNH Can Reignite Playoff Hopes
CAA Football Week 12 Previews & Predictions: UNH Can Reignite Playoff Hopes
Stony Brook can likely seal its place in the FCS Playoffs with a Week 12 win, but they must get past a New Hampshire with reignited postseason aspirations.
Here they come down the home stretch, and it’s Richmond now out in front. Rhode Island, Stony Brook, and Villanova are neck-and-neck in hot pursuit of those Spiders with an FCS Playoffs finish line in sight.
Coming on strong along the outside, it’s New Hampshire, while William & Mary takes a stumble that could spoil the Tribe's placing in the postseason.
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The Coastal Athletic Association’s horse race to the championship and the FCS Playoffs has reached a fever pitch with just two weeks remaining in the 2024 regular season. Richmond finds itself alone on top, capable of securing the CAA’s first outright championship since 2019.
The Spiders close out with a pair of regional rivalries, including the traditional season finale against William & Mary for the Capital Cup. Maintaining possession of the Cup before UR moves to the Patriot League is motivation all its own with or without the prospect of an outright CAA championship, but the Spiders cannot overlook their Week 12 matchup with Hampton.
Hampton came into November with the hope of a strong finish piloting the Pirates to the Playoffs. They have instead hit rocky waters likely capsizing any chance of the postseason.
Still, Hampton can make an impact on the CAA title race ahead of the regular season’s final week by breaking through after two weeks of near-misses: Bryant taking Stony Brook to overtime on Nov. 2, and Richmond’s win at Campbell coming down to a last-second field goal.
With no gimmes anywhere on the schedule and little-to-no margin for error, the CAA is headed for a photo finish.
Stony Brook at New Hampshire
The biggest game of the week in the CAA, and one of the marquee matchups in all of the FCS, offers huge stakes for both visiting Stony Brook and host New Hampshire.
At 8-2, Stony Brook has already undergone a historic transformation after an 0-10 finish in 2023. One more win should ensure the Seawolves return to the postseason for the first time since 2018, while two more wins gives Stony Brook its first 10-win campaign since 2017.
New Hampshire welcomes first-year head coach Billy Cosh and his Seawolves to Durham, and the Wildcats have pretty clear instructions: Win or their postseason hopes are done.
"The playoffs started a month early for us," said UNH coach Rick Santos. "The message has been work as hard as we can to extend our season one week at a time...We want to play as much meaningful football together as we can."
Saturday's contest is certainly meaningful. If New Hampshire beats Stony Brook, the Wildcats improve to 7-4 and carry a three-game winning streak into the Battle for the Brice-Cowell Musket with the prospect of eight wins likely buoying them into the playoff bracket.
What's more, UNH would have a late-season win over a top 20 to its credit. Stony Brook has steadily climbed the polls, now at No. 16 in the STATS Perform Top 25. Their ranking suggests if the Seawolves win out, they'll earn at least a home game in the 1st Round of the FCS Playoffs — and, if enough things break in their favor, perhaps even contend for a bye.
But Cosh emphasized there's no looking ahead to Selection Sunday when faced with an opponent like UNH.
"We haven't beaten those guys in forever," Cosh said of New Hampshire, which has taken the last four from Stony Brook. "They've been so successful for a long time and Rick's done a great job continuing the tradition."
This matchup features two of the most talented defenses in the CAA. Rushawn Lawrence's eight sacks are tied for third-most in the conference, while Josiah Silver's 11.5 matches the league lead.
Offensively, Stony Book has seemingly found a new gear thanks to the emergence of quarterback Tyler Knoop. Starting with his six-touchdown performance on Oct. 19 vs. Towson, Knoop has thrown for at least 229 yards, chalked up 10 touchdowns, and only been intercepted once.
The passing threat combined with running back Roland Dempster's continued consistency rushing the ball — Dempster has carried at least 98 yards in seven consecutive games with three straight two-touchdown efforts — has made Stony Brook much more difficult to defend.
New Hampshire's offense struggled mightily last month in part because the Wildcats couldn't establish a reliable ground game. Denzell Gibson and Myles Thomason continue to split carries to take some pressure off of quarterback Seth Morgan. UNH will need every yard it can muster against Stony Brook's stout defense in order to open the field enough for Morgan and standout wide receiver Logan Tomlinson to make some big plays.
PREDICTION: Stony Brook 28, New Hampshire 20
Villanova at Monmouth
Another potential trap game for one of the CAA’s leaders sees Villanova make the short trip to the Jersey Shore to visit Monmouth. The Hawks hit a snag their excellent three-game run in September, dropping 4-of-5 after last week's 33-20 loss to New Hampshire.
A Monmouth offense that had been setting scoreboards on fire has cooled off amid a three-game losing skid, and the degree of difficulty increases this week against a Villanova defense that has been outstanding for much of the season.
"We're playing some tough teams in the conference during the last month," said Hawks coach Kevin Callahan. "They're all ranked teams and they're all probably going to be playoff teams. I think that has something to do with it."
Count Villanova among that group of likely playoff-bound competition for Monmouth. The Wildcats sit in a good position to reach their third postseason in four years and fourth since 2019, presumably needing just one more win in the next two games to be assured of a spot. Two more wins, including the season finale over red-hot Delaware, should have Mark Ferrante's team in the conversation for a 1st-round bye.
Since losing a 35-7 shocker to Maine, Villanova has allowed a combined 23 points in wins over New Hampshire, Hampton, and North Carolina A&T. Linebacker Shane Hartzell has been electric over this stretch, most recently recording a pair of sacks in the 31-3 romp over A&T last week.
Ferrante credited Hartzell, and the Villanova defense as a whole, for flourishing thanks to the experience the Wildcats boast up and down the lineup.
"I said it before and I'll say it again, we just have so much experience on that side of the ball," he said. "We could put all fifth-year and sixth-year guys, along with Hartzell, a fourth-year senior [on the field]."
PREDICTION: Villanova 31, Monmouth 17
UAlbany at Rhode Island
Saturday has the potential to be a landmark date in Rhode Island football history. A win marks the Rams’ ninth of the season, almost assuredly locking them into the FCS Playoffs after 39 years of missing the postseason.
"We've been grinding to be able to get that honor," said Rams coach Jim Fleming, who has had URI on the doorstep of the postseason consistently the last half-decade. "It means an awful lot to our kids, it means a lot to our alumni, our school."
"We're really excited about doing that," Fleming continued, but added: "But we know we've got a very tough UAlbany team, and I know [Great Danes coach] Greg [Gattuso]'s team will be prepared to try to spoil those dreams."
UAlbany has had a difficult 2024, losing considerable production from its dream 2023 season. Injuries during the campaign have also slowed the Great Danes. More personnel movement could be on the horizon, too, as Fleming noted the prospect of facing different quarterbacks.
Van Weber and Trey Lindsey both saw snaps against Stony Brook. Weber passed for a touchdown and more than 200 yards, but the Great Dane's inability to run the football hindered how effective UAlbany could be overall.
Rhode Island, meanwhile, had Hunter Helms behind center against Delaware with Devin Farrell injured. Helms performed admirably, but Farrell returns to the lineup this week. Farrell was coming along nicely in recent weeks, and if he continues on that trajectory, he should help URI clinch a spot in the Playoffs with a win on Saturday.
PREDICTION: Rhode Island 35, UAlbany 13
Maine at Elon
Despite falling out of contention for the CAA championship, both Elon and Maine have played some of the most exciting football the Coastal has to offer in recent weeks. Each heads into Week 12 off of impressive wins, with Elon scoring a 40-36 defeat of William & Mary in the one of the wildest finishes of the 2024 season.
The Phoenix can finish .500 if they continue their ongoing winning streak through the final two weeks. Maine, meanwhile, improved to 5-5 after rebounding from a two-game skid with the Black Bears' 38-26 defeat of Bryant.
Maine quarterback Carter Peevy poured it on with four passing touchdowns all in the first half.
There’s an outside chance, albeit highly unlikely, that Maine could sneak into the playoff conversation if it gets to 7-5. The Black Bears would have a resume that includes a blowout win over top 10-ranked Villanova, a three-game winning streak to end the regular season, and one of the most potentially explosive offenses in the nation behind Peevy.
Elon's Matthew Downing has come alive in recent weeks after a slow start to the season for the Phoenix offense, scoring five touchdowns in last week's win.
"I'm just so proud of our players and our staff for the sustained effort and belief in each to fight," said Phoenix coach Tony Trisciani. Elon may be out of the Playoffs, but the team isn't playing like it.
PREDICTION: Elon 35, Maine 31
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