Ricky Thornton Jr. of Chandler, Ariz., enters this weekend’s 44th annual General Tire Dirt Track World Championship presented by ARP at Eldora Speedway in Rossburg, Ohio, in the most advantageous position in the Lucas Oil Late Model Dirt Series Big River Steel Chase for the Championship.

But by no means is the pressure off the 34-year-old superstar, who is guaranteed the title with a fourth-place or better finish in Saturday's 100-lapper no matter how the other Big Four drivers perform.

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Thornton sits atop Lucas Oil Late Model Dirt Series standings after a nearly perfect visit to Brownstown (Ind.) Speedway — a $10,000 win Friday and runner-up finish in Saturday’s Jackson 100 — but his margin is just 50 points over the deadlocked duo of Blairsville, Ga.’s Jonathan Davenport and Dresden, Ohio’s Devin Moran.

With the other participant in the four-driver playoffs, Tim McCreadie of Watertown, N.Y., out of contention after falling 165 points behind, Thornton only has to worry about Davenport and Moran in the national tour’s season-ending spectacular at Eldora. What’s more, Thornton has a cushion, albeit ever so slight, on his challengers, unlike in last year’s DTWC when the circuit’s Chase format — one race with the championship going to the Big Four driver who finishes highest in the 100-lap feature — erased a huge points lead.

Thornton, who last October saw his title hopes effectively end because of an early-race tangle that put him down multiple laps while his crew made repairs, doesn’t have much room for error this weekend. He has a clear path, however, to his first Lucas Oil Series crown, which is worth a whopping $200,000 from a points fund totaling more than $1 million. Second place in the Chase is worth $150,000, third pays $125,000 and fourth offers $100,000.

The variables of fast-qualifying bonuses (10 points for the top drivers in each of Friday's time-trial groups) complicate things, but here's a look at scenarios for how each driver can win the title:

Ricky Thornton Jr.

The most straightforward scenario for Thornton is to earn a 10-point bonus for setting a group fast time Friday — while Davenport or Moran do not — to push his edge to 60 points and then finish eighth or better in Saturday’s $100,000-to-win DTWC headliner. An eighth for Thornton would leave him in a tie if Davenport or Moran would win, but Thornton has already clinched the first tiebreaker (most victories this season in points-paying races) with nine victories vs. six for Moran and five for Davenport.

If none among the Thornton, Davenport and Moran trio earns a fast-time bonus, then Thornton would need at least a sixth-place finish to assure himself of the championship. Opposite that scenario, if Davenport and/or Moran claims the 10-point bonus to cut Thornton’s advantage to 40 points, RTJ would need to finish at least fourth to win the title.

So, finish fourth or better and regardless of what else happens, Ricky Thornton Jr. will be crowned the 2024 Lucas Oil Late Model Dirt Series champion. 

Jonathan Davenport and Devin Moran

The championship scenarios for Davenport and Moran are simpler, especially if neither driver earns qualifying bonus points. They would enter the DTWC 100-lapper tied in the standings, so whoever finished better would win the title, provided Thornton slips far enough behind them in the finishing order.

There is the possibility of Davenport and Moran tying atop the standings if just one of them collects the 10 fast-time bonus points. Under that circumstance, they couldn’t tie if one of them would win the race — there’s a 20-point difference from first to second — but they could end up deadlocked if they finished elsewhere (2-4 drops 10 points per position while 4-21 drop five points per spot).

A Davenport-Moran tie would go to Moran on the first tiebreaker: most victories in points races.

Tim McCreadie

With 135 points being the maximum amount a driver can make up in a single race — the 125-point difference between first place (200) and 21st-and-worse (75) plus the potential 10-point fast-time bonus — McCreadie’s 165-point deficit is too much to overcome. He’s mathematically alive for a second-place finish, but just barely. He would lose a tiebreaker to both Davenport and Moran because he’s only won two points-paying features this season.